Settlement infrastructure for the long tail of prediction markets.
Web3 settlement, Web2 simplicity. Base-native. Permissionless.
Prediction markets just broke out as a category.
Polymarket proved the demand, but their complex desktop architecture limits them to a handful of macroeconomic or political events. The remaining cultural surface area — niche sports, creator trends, breaking media — is wide open and structurally larger.
We are building the platform for everything else. Same robust backend settlement primitive, packaged into a frictionless mobile interface where order books and crypto jargon cannot reach.
Polymarket is the #1 trading platform on the public internet — but it lacks the retail hook.
Q1 2026 monthly visitors, finance & trading category. Three of the top thirteen are prediction markets — the consumer demand is real, but the mainstream interface is wide open.
More monthly visitors than Coinbase, Robinhood, Kraken, Pump.fun, and Uniswap combined. To capture the next 100M users, we must abstract away the backend entirely.
Order books require active market makers. The long tail has none.
Polymarket's CLOB architecture works where institutional market makers profit. It fails wherever volume is unpredictable — which is everywhere outside the top 1%. The category's growth ceiling is an onboarding and liquidity problem, not a demand problem.
Order-book liquidity
Buyers need active sellers. Without market makers, the book is empty. High platform rewards are paid to MMs just to keep the top markets liquid.
- Top markets · deep
- Mid markets · shallow
- Long tail (89%) · effectively dead
The contract is the market maker
Creators seed the curve at launch; the automated engine quotes a price for any trade, at any size, at any time. Complex mechanics are kept completely under the hood.
- Always-on quote · no MM dependency
- Predictable depth · from creator stake
- Every market trades instantly with one tap
Liquidity becomes a creator economy, not a platform expense.
The consumer on-ramp that prediction markets are missing.
Trading flow is rotating from complex derivatives into straightforward event predictions. We are building the same hyper-viral on-ramp that Pump.fun built for tokens, optimized for mainstream consumer trends.
Pre-Pump.fun
Manual setups and complex interfaces. Most tokens died due to high onboarding friction. The category was real but the tooling was not.
Prediction markets, today
Polymarket and UMA exist, but no platform offers an accessible, consumer-grade tool for the long tail. The market is waiting for a mainstream gateway.
Transparent backend, seamless Web2 UI
One-click market creation, automatic liquidity, and zero friction. We handle thousands of micro-markets daily, and breakout cultural trends scale massively.
Noise is a feature, not a bug. Pump.fun ships thousands of tokens daily — the occasional breakout goes massive. Same shape here: most ToldYou markets will be small, a few scale into the millions. ToldYou operates as the discovery and settlement surface for the entire category.
Frictionless market creation. Complex tools kept out of sight.
Four fields, one click. The launch flow is structurally simpler than posting a video, with the maker's downside mathematically bounded before any activity begins.
A trade clears in under two seconds. Zero friction.
No bridging, no L2 gas funding, no order book lag. The backend curve quotes the price, the user taps once, and finality is achieved instantly for less than a cent.
A high-velocity UX designed for the attention economy.
The backend covers the long tail; the intuitive interface ensures it actually trades. We built a native feed that turns financial decisions into familiar consumer gestures.
Vertical discovery, one thumb.
Mobile-first vertical discovery feed. Swipe right to buy YES, swipe left to buy NO.
- Utilizes the exact muscle memory retail users already possess.
- Preset stake sizes, adjustable inline for rapid, continuous interaction.
Read the story, take the position.
Every market is paired with a live media feed — news articles, social posts, live streams — on the same screen.
- Consume the cultural context and take a position simultaneously, without switching apps.
- Keeps information and engagement unified on a single surface.
A native, gasless mobile application.
Native onboarding is the single largest funnel-killer in consumer tech. We preserve settlement stability but remove every artifact of it from the user experience.
Self-custody preserved
The convenience is in the UI, while security remains on the backend. The embedded system belongs entirely to the user — fully exportable and recoverable via their existing digital identity, ensuring institutional trust without UI friction.
Automating market supply where consumer attention lives.
We solve market catalog scaling through three automated, parallel distribution loops.
Mass distribution via a 110M+ user retail funnel.
Base provides the perfect backend architecture for mainstream consumer apps. Sub-cent fees, near-instant block times, and native USDC integration let us scale without asking users to bridge assets or leave a familiar ecosystem.
We don't compete for institutional volume. We own the consumer long tail.
The same paradigm shift as automated liquidity vs. centralised books. The long tail wins through aggregate volume and unconstrained market selection.
Owning the long tail of cultural attention allows the platform to capture 89% of the unserved market surface area on day one.
Automated truth engine.
Credible neutrality utilizing battle-tested primitives on day one, with high-speed automated resolution systems currently in development.
UMA Optimistic Oracle
Powered by UMA's Optimistic Oracle network. Operates via programmatic consensus to ensure absolute neutrality with zero platform intervention.
- Credibly neutral — no platform discretion
- Battle-tested — billions in cumulative settlements
- Wired up on devnet, mainnet at launch
A coordinated fleet of independent AI models.
Independent AI models voting on market outcomes. Achieves verified resolution in minutes rather than days, eliminating single points of failure while maintaining a fallback link to UMA.
- Resolution in minutes, not days
- No single point of failure
- Diverse models — hard to game collectively
- Falls back to UMA on tied votes
Sustainable monetization driven by organic volume.
Zero user acquisition cost per market because creators and automated trends bring their own built-in engagement.
The consumer attention loop.
A cultural trend emerges → the market is populated instantly → users interact via a frictionless, mobile-first feed → high-velocity volume generates programmatic revenue → creators scale up activity, driving network effects.
Built on sustainable fundamentals.
Unit economics function out of the box without requiring venture subsidies. Revenue scales dynamically with network volume.